Turkey extends prospecting in Aegean in move that risks sparking conflict with Greece

Turkey's Oruc Reis seismic vessel, escorted by Turkish navy ships, in the eastern Mediterranean  - Anadolu Agency
Turkey's Oruc Reis seismic vessel, escorted by Turkish navy ships, in the eastern Mediterranean - Anadolu Agency

The risk of conflict between Greece and Turkey in the Aegean is likely to escalate this week after Ankara said a Turkish vessel prospecting for oil and gas on the seabed would remain in the region until Thursday.

The Oruc Reis exploration vessel, escorted by warships, had been expected to withdraw from the area on Sunday but the Turkish government said it would continue conducting seismic surveys, in a move that further antagonises already tense relations with Greece.

Athens says the vessel, along with two auxiliary ships, is illegally exploring its waters and continental shelf.

In such a volatile situation, a miscalculation by one side or the other could have serious consequences.

“More than ever before, the latest cycle of escalation risks spiraling into a multinational conflict,” Michaël Tanchum, a senior fellow at the Austrian Institute for European and Security Studies, wrote in Foreign Policy recently.

“Observers around the world fear that any further escalation in the Eastern Mediterranean could set off a Euro-Middle Eastern maelstrom.”

Turkey's Oruc Reis seismic research vessel  - Getty
Turkey's Oruc Reis seismic research vessel - Getty

Earlier this month, a Turkish frigate collided with a Greek frigate during a clumsy manoeuvre, in what the Turkish foreign minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu, claimed was a “provocation” but which Athens said was an accident.

In a growing standoff which is pulling in other powers, the United Arab Emirates sent four F-16 fighters to take part in military exercises with Greek forces off the island of Crete on Monday.

France has already sent a frigate, a helicopter carrier and Rafale fighter planes to the region to back up Greece, as tensions with Turkey rise to a level not seen since 1996, when the two countries nearly went to war over the disputed Imia islands in the Aegean.

Heiko Maas, Germany’s foreign minister, will try to mediate the dispute on Tuesday, traveling to both Athens and Ankara.

Berlin regrets Turkey's decision to extend prospecting for oil and gas, a government spokesman said.

The longstanding tensions between Greece and Turkey have been worsened by a maritime doctrine dubbed the “Blue Homeland” adopted by Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s increasingly belligerent president.

Turkey's president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan - Getty
Turkey's president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan - Getty

It envisages Turkey having a much greater say in the exploitation of the waters off its coastline, including areas claimed by Greece and Cyprus.

Greece and Turkey are both members of Nato but a military confrontation in the eastern Mediterranean would shatter the alliance, according to retired Rear Admiral Cem Gurdeniz, who helped outline the Blue Homeland strategy more than a decade ago.

"If Greece pulls the trigger, it will be the end of Nato," he told AFP in Istanbul, implying that Turkey would withdraw from the alliance.

"European countries should put pressure on Greece so that it abandons" some of its maritime claims, he said.

He accused President Emmanuel Macron of adding “fuel to the fire” by sending French forces to the region and said Turkey should not just have a stronger presence in the Mediterranean but also the Red Sea, the Arabian Sea and even the Atlantic.

Ankara feels it has been shut out of lucrative oil and gas exploration by deals forged between Greece, Egypt, Cyprus and Israel.

The proximity of many Greek islands to the Turkish coastline makes mediating between the two countries’ competing claims extremely complex.

The tiny Greek island of Kastellorizo, for instance, lies just 1.2 miles off the Turkish coastline – so close that there is an annual swimming competition between the island and the Turkish town of Kas.

Tensions were exacerbated in November when Turkey signed a maritime demarcation agreement with the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord in Libya, marking out a vast zone of interest in the eastern Mediterranean that impinged on the waters around Crete.

Athens countered that deal earlier this month with a rival demarcation agreement it drew up with Egypt.